Comments on: December 10, 2009 – Daily Brief http://scvtalk.com/2009/12/10/december-10-2009-daily-brief/ a blog for SCV nerds by SCV nerds. Blogging Santa Clarita daily since 2006 Wed, 23 May 2012 00:46:44 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 By: mike http://scvtalk.com/2009/12/10/december-10-2009-daily-brief/comment-page-1/#comment-5917 mike Fri, 11 Dec 2009 15:53:09 +0000 http://scvtalk.com/?p=982#comment-5917 Locally, we'll just have Smyth and McKeon in 2010. Nationally, the GOP will gain a bunch of seats, it seems. After 2010 we get redistricting, which may change the game entirely. The first great SCV showdown may come if Runner wins the Board of EQ race and there is a special election to replace. Runner's district is nearly even, much more purple than Smyth's, for example. Locally, we’ll just have Smyth and McKeon in 2010. Nationally, the GOP will gain a bunch of seats, it seems. After 2010 we get redistricting, which may change the game entirely. The first great SCV showdown may come if Runner wins the Board of EQ race and there is a special election to replace. Runner’s district is nearly even, much more purple than Smyth’s, for example.

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]]> By: mike http://scvtalk.com/2009/12/10/december-10-2009-daily-brief/comment-page-1/#comment-5910 mike Fri, 11 Dec 2009 06:52:16 +0000 http://scvtalk.com/?p=982#comment-5910 ND, the pattern isn't in the 2008 election but in the the gap in party registration in Santa Clarita, which has narrowed substantially over the last half-decade. Feel free to wish it away, but there are a lot of things at play that are moving these numbers. In short, people under 35 aren't becoming Republicans like they used to, and people who are moving to the SCV don't have the same motivations as people who used to move here had. Newer areas like West Ranch and Tesoro are among the valley's most Democratic. ND, the pattern isn’t in the 2008 election but in the the gap in party registration in Santa Clarita, which has narrowed substantially over the last half-decade. Feel free to wish it away, but there are a lot of things at play that are moving these numbers. In short, people under 35 aren’t becoming Republicans like they used to, and people who are moving to the SCV don’t have the same motivations as people who used to move here had. Newer areas like West Ranch and Tesoro are among the valley’s most Democratic.

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]]> By: mike http://scvtalk.com/2009/12/10/december-10-2009-daily-brief/comment-page-1/#comment-5907 mike Fri, 11 Dec 2009 05:46:17 +0000 http://scvtalk.com/?p=982#comment-5907 ND: I was about to say what Tim just said. But to your hypothesis that conservatives "voted with their feet", are you suggesting that they somehow "unregistered" to vote? hardly. This is a town that is rapidly becoming purple. ND:

I was about to say what Tim just said. But to your hypothesis that conservatives “voted with their feet”, are you suggesting that they somehow “unregistered” to vote? hardly. This is a town that is rapidly becoming purple.

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]]> By: Timothy Myers http://scvtalk.com/2009/12/10/december-10-2009-daily-brief/comment-page-1/#comment-5902 Timothy Myers Fri, 11 Dec 2009 01:51:31 +0000 http://scvtalk.com/?p=982#comment-5902 ND: Your numbers are slight off. In fact one-third of the population is under 18, but the 85 number is the number of registered voters in the City proper with 160K in people and one third under 18, sooo the City residents are about 80% registered to vote. Not perfect, but not bad. If one kicks up adult expatriates the City is probably closer to 90%. The County areas not so much. There are 16,000 more voters out of an incremental population of 115K. Kick out the kiddies and that results in a registration rate of about 20%. No wonder Dave Bossert gets elected with 23 votes! ND:

Your numbers are slight off. In fact one-third of the population is under 18, but the 85 number is the number of registered voters in the City proper with 160K in people and one third under 18, sooo the City residents are about 80% registered to vote. Not perfect, but not bad. If one kicks up adult expatriates the City is probably closer to 90%.

The County areas not so much. There are 16,000 more voters out of an incremental population of 115K. Kick out the kiddies and that results
in a registration rate of about 20%. No wonder Dave Bossert gets elected with 23 votes!

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]]> By: Jim Farley http://scvtalk.com/2009/12/10/december-10-2009-daily-brief/comment-page-1/#comment-5901 Jim Farley Fri, 11 Dec 2009 01:51:04 +0000 http://scvtalk.com/?p=982#comment-5901 "80% of people with a graduate degree voted for Obama." This statistic is not that surprising being that those who spent the most time in colleges that lean very liberal would vote for Obama. I'd like to know how that number breaks down between those who graduated in liberal arts vs those in business and science. Many who voted for Obama were voting for the 'anti-Bush'. As the current polls are showing many are now regretting that vote. I'd like to see how that polling is playing out in the precincts of Northbridge now. The only poll that will really count is the elections in November. Me thinks the conservatives will make a comeback. “80% of people with a graduate degree voted for Obama.”

This statistic is not that surprising being that those who spent the most time in colleges that lean very liberal would vote for Obama. I’d like to know how that number breaks down between those who graduated in liberal arts vs those in business and science.

Many who voted for Obama were voting for the ‘anti-Bush’. As the current polls are showing many are now regretting that vote. I’d like to see how that polling is playing out in the precincts of Northbridge now.

The only poll that will really count is the elections in November. Me thinks the conservatives will make a comeback.

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]]> By: Timothy Myers http://scvtalk.com/2009/12/10/december-10-2009-daily-brief/comment-page-1/#comment-5899 Timothy Myers Fri, 11 Dec 2009 01:03:39 +0000 http://scvtalk.com/?p=982#comment-5899 ND: On behalf of all the cool kids who mistreated you in high school, please accept my most sincere apologies. ND:

On behalf of all the cool kids who mistreated you in high school, please accept my most sincere apologies.

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]]> By: mike http://scvtalk.com/2009/12/10/december-10-2009-daily-brief/comment-page-1/#comment-5896 mike Fri, 11 Dec 2009 00:37:03 +0000 http://scvtalk.com/?p=982#comment-5896 ND, are you going out on a limb to predict a Buck McKeon victory in 2010? That's pretty bold, yeah? ND, are you going out on a limb to predict a Buck McKeon victory in 2010? That’s pretty bold, yeah?

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]]> By: mike http://scvtalk.com/2009/12/10/december-10-2009-daily-brief/comment-page-1/#comment-5895 mike Fri, 11 Dec 2009 00:35:30 +0000 http://scvtalk.com/?p=982#comment-5895 ND, the turnout was off the charts in the SCV, despite your gut feeling, conservatives, like everyone else, voted in droves in 2008. After all, there were civil rights that needed stripping, right? ND, the turnout was off the charts in the SCV, despite your gut feeling, conservatives, like everyone else, voted in droves in 2008. After all, there were civil rights that needed stripping, right?

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]]> By: Timothy Myers http://scvtalk.com/2009/12/10/december-10-2009-daily-brief/comment-page-1/#comment-5893 Timothy Myers Fri, 11 Dec 2009 00:19:12 +0000 http://scvtalk.com/?p=982#comment-5893 Nickeldime: 80% of people with a graduate degree voted for Obama. Think about it! Nickeldime:

80% of people with a graduate degree voted for Obama.

Think about it!

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]]> By: Timothy Myers http://scvtalk.com/2009/12/10/december-10-2009-daily-brief/comment-page-1/#comment-5890 Timothy Myers Thu, 10 Dec 2009 22:19:03 +0000 http://scvtalk.com/?p=982#comment-5890 Jim: I may just have to show you some 2008 presidential precinct results for Northbridge that you're not going to like! Jim:

I may just have to show you some 2008 presidential precinct results for Northbridge that you’re not going to like!

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