The short answer is yes. One knows this because of their behavior. Three examples come to mind:
1. Frank Ferry’s fundraising email on February 22 requesting $45,000 in 30 days to the business community to beat back a challenge from TimBen Boydston and Dave Gauny and their (until now) unknown Sierra Club and SCOPE allies that will seek to bring a Maoist Worker’s Paradise to the SCV;
2. Marsha McLean’s weird posting concerning how David Gauny “rigged” an endorsement; and
3. Laurie Ender’s set up of a Facebook page for Frank Ferry’s campaign on February 27, 2010.
Now should the incumbents be concerned? No one KNOWS because no one has money to do accurate polling, and for technical reasons, primarily due to historically low voter turnout, polls are of limited use anyway, but one can SPECULATE on what has got them rattled, and I will.
Let us first talk about how the incumbents expect to run a campaign for re-election, at least this time. Collect the proper endorsements, send out a couple of mailers, cut a ribbon on a major road or public building, put up some signs and DONE. They will still do all these things, but something has got them rattled and I can’t quite figure it out. When one examines this objectively, this is currently the campaign that wasn’t. There have been no mailers on absentee ballots, no voter registration, mailers, etc. The fact is that were it not for the SOS rally and Dave Gauny’s participation someone from outside the SCV reading the local media would not even know their was a campaign UNLESS they read the Internet.
And that is the key UNLESS. Based on robust discussions of the informedit would seem there is a lot of interest in the council election and upset with the incumbents. Add to that the sturm and drang over the SOS rally and the potential ability to generate name recognition for Dave Gauny and that could get them rattled as well. Hence the activities discussed above and the Facebook, probably hoping that Frank Ferry will quickly reach 1,000 fans against Dave Gauny’s 478 and feel better about himself. But then the question: Is this lightning in a bottle or more widespread. Of course, no one KNOWS!
What would settle the minds of the incumbents? Remember the fundraising email went out on February 22, five days before the SOS rally basically fizzled, so the incumbents probably feel marginally better. On top of that fundraising reports will be available to the public on Friday, March 5, and a low total by Dave Gauny could make them feel better as well.
However, I will make a prediction that if Dave Gauny and TimBen Boydston have both raised between $10K and $15K EACH, the incumbents will become even more unsettled, and their behavior might turn even more bizarre.
More bizarre, Yikes!
Publicity stunts and PAC’s are what the incumbents do!
They are doing everything they can to publish all of their wonderful accolades right here at election time.
But, for Frank to put out a email that ask vendors to ask their vendors to donate to a business-friendly City Council is down right despicable, IMHO!
Timmy – I will make a prediction that this election will not pan out like your in depth mathematical analysis predicts. My gut is telling me it is a whole different game this time, with a lot more residents disatisfied with the status quo of incumbents winning due to the influx of campaign money from special interests. I think they have good reason to be rattled.
“But, for Frank to put out a email that ask vendors to ask their vendors to donate to a business-friendly City Council is down right despicable, IMHO!”
Probably the first honest statement he’s put out in years…
There you have it….Sgt. Bossert’s Bitter Hearts Club. Hope you enjoy the show because you won’t enjoy the ending (again).
Tim, have you ever considered organizing some polling yourself? Then you could have real numbers to sum up and average to your heart’s content rather than hypothetical ones.
I suppose all we would need to do would be to put a mock ballot up online, and send invitations to vote on it to a random selection of hundreds of Claritan voters, ensure each person could vote only once, and ask them to also include an honest assessment of their likelihood to vote. Then we’d also need to send a few people out to poll a random selection of the old people who vote religiously but hate computers, and make sure that sector is appropriately represented. I think it’s doable.
While polling provides a good snapshot of where the voters stand at a particular time, it can’t show the dynamic nature that I believe will exist with this election.
IHeart:
That would not be a scientific poll. Can’t be random when one sends out “invitiations” and people can self select whether they participate or not.
Tim – I thought I was the only crazy one up at 5:00 am and looking at a blog………
“There you have it….Sgt. Bossert’s Bitter Hearts Club. Hope you enjoy the show because you won’t enjoy the ending (again).”
HAHA NICE.
Tim, I was mostly just rambling nonsensically, but I just wanted to point out that your comment “That would not be a scientific poll. Can’t be random when one sends out ‘invitiations’ and people can self select whether they participate or not” is not compatible with your having annointed the SCV-wide poll as “scientific.” Any poll relies on invitations (do you answere the phone call or not? return the questionnaire or not?), unless we’re in some communist state where participation is compulsory.
You are on a communist blog according to some
Do you prefer Chairman, Comrade, or Comrade-Chairman Wilson?
Communist??? No. Want to give away the farm, yes!!!!
“There have been no mailers on absentee ballots”
Tim,
The absentee ballots don’t come out for another 10 days. Then you’ll see the flood of political mailers hitting your doorstep.
The fact is that were it not for the SOS rally and Dave Gauny’s participation someone from outside the SCV reading the local media would not even know their was a campaign UNLESS they read the Internet.
Not true, Tim. There is a big ol’ sign promoting Gauny across from the hospital on McBean, and another for Boydston next to it. Also, there are several signs in my neighborhood for Boydston. Maybe if you were out among the people instead of speculating from on high, you would have a better feel for what is going on amongst the commoners.
Laurie Ender’s set up of a Facebook page for Frank Ferry’s campaign on February 27, 2010.
OMG, I’m gonna puke.
Pingback: SCVTalk.com » Blog Archive » What a Week!