With David Gauny failing to break the arc of history regarding incumbent invincibility in local elections, we now turn to the probable 2012 candidacy of David Gauny when Bob Kellar vacates his seat. There are already whispers within the fractious group of geography Republicans that make up the Santa Clarita Valley political landscape of mounting a spirited opposition to this candidacy. Just like Mr. Gauny in his unsuccessful 2010 candidacy against three incumbents, they would be fighting the wave of SCV history.
The reason deals with what I call the “open seat” situation. When one or more incumbents decide not to run for re-election their seats “open” and would seem to be there for anyone’s taking. However, in five of only seven situations when a seat has opened on the SCV City Council (yes, in 20 plus years only seven times have incumbents not run for re-election) the seat has gone to the candidate that ran the closest in the election immediately prior, but failed to gain a seat.
A brief timeline:
1996-George Pedersen gives up his seat (he replaced Buck McKeon) and Jill Klajic who ran 4th in 1994 wins.
1998-Carl Boyer and Clyde Smyth give up their seats and Frank Ferry and Laurene Weste, who ran third and fourth in 1996 win.
2000-Jill Klajic and Jan Heidt give up their seats and Cameron Smyth, who came fourth in 1998, wins.
2002-JoAnn Darcy gives up her seat and Marsha McLean, who came third in 2000, wins.
Early in the campaign I told both TimBen Boydston and David Gauny that they were actually running for fourth to see who would get the vacated seat of Bob Kellar in 2012. Woe to any that might seek to oppose David Gauny in 2012. They will not deny him his historical birthright!
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Huh?
First time candidate Bob Kellar was elected in 2000, defeating second time candidates Marsha McLean and Rein Schuerger.
And, first time candidate Laurie Ender was elected in 2008, defeating second time candidate Diane Trautman. (In fact, Laurie Ender “defeated” councilman Bob Kellar, who finished behind Ender and thus nabbed the second seat up in that election).
So, the sitting council consists of 40% elected as first-time candidates who defeated candidates who had previously ran and lost, and 60% who won their seats after at least one previously unsuccessful run.
The data hardly demonstrates a “wave of SCV history” that portends a “historical birthright” of a future council seat to a losing candidate.
Exactly! Five out of seven times the person to replace a vacating incumbent was the person who came just shy of winning in the previous election. Two times (Ender and Kellar) not the case.
I’m sticking with this prediction!!!
Whatever. We all know your predictions are not very “sticky” anyway!
Zing… True Dat Timbo.
Next week Tim Meyers will write a column on why Gauny can’t win in 2012.
That way he can claim to be right. (Again…)