Nate of the great 538.com political forecasting website says Congressman Buck McKeon has a 100% chance of being re-elected this year:
To most Santa Claritans in the know, this is a completely unsurprising (and remarkably easy) prediction. Though we like to think that in a democracy there is maybe just maybe, a chance, Nate’s numbers prove what we know in our hearts to be true: there is no chance, in fact, there is only the opposite of chance: certainty. Certainty that McKeon will win again.
Must be nice to have 100% job security. But that is what the voters want, so who am I to argue?
It’s funny to think back just 18 months ago when CA-25 was mentioned breathlessly by Democrats (including me) as one of the “Obama Eight.” Eight Republican-represented California districts that in 2008 went for Obama and could -if the stars align properly- elect a Democrat in 2010. 2008 was also the narrowest victory McKeon ever had as an incumbet (he destroyed Jackie Conaway 57-42). Every other election as an incumbent has seen McKeon win with over 60% of the vote. Even in 2006, when he faced a strong, plucky young challenger from Barstow named Robert Rodriguez, McKeon dominated with over 60% of the vote. (Incidentally, scoring an interview with Rodriguez was one of SCVTalk’s first big stories, you can read it here to see that we were talking about Cemex back then along with the war in Iraq.)
So here’s to another two years of Buck McKeon. We’ll have to see how next year’s Census Data and District apportionment shakes out for Santa Clarita.
Fortunately, for political geeks there’s a lot more things to get excited about in this election than guessing the percentage McKeon will win by. I can’t wait to see the SCV breakdown in voting for the marijuana initiative, not to mention Governor and Bab’s Senate seat.
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I think the real “race to watch” is Castaic Lake Water Agency Division One!
What are McKeons accomplishments for the SCV which any elected person couldn’t have done. He is a party line hack who takes money from the defense industry while wrapping himself in the flag. This patronage increases our taxes! Attention anarchists! Buck is costing us money! He is spending our kids future!
This embarrasment said he would term himself out but that was just another lie!
The only interesting political question is who will eventually succeed Buck as SCV’s Republican Congressman.
I wouldn’t be so quick to assume that. There’s a very good chance our Congressman will be Brad Sherman after redistricting.
It just happens that we live in a GOP dominated district. I have lived in a democrat dominated district in California before. The same goes both ways.
This is the consequence of the relentless gerrymandering of congressional districts in the U.S. With tongue-in-cheek, I’d say Democrats in your district are lucky–at least they actually had a candidate to vote for! In the 22nd District, Republican Kevin McCarthy was unopposed, and in the 28th District, Democrat Howard Berman was unopposed.
This gerrymandering is part of our national political process, as it produces people on both sides who are, as Brian puts it, “party line hacks.” More than that, it produces a wider split between the parties in government, as moderates are squeezed out by candidates out on the wings. If our districts were drawn to maximize competitiveness, successful candidates would have to move to the center, which could (not necessarily would, but could) reduce partisanship and enhance the prospects for congressmembers working across the aisle.
The problem is that both parties have a strong incentive to support the current system, because it provides job security for incumbents. A system of competitive districts would make life rough on our representatives, and they’ll fight tooth and nail to prevent that.
/soapbox.
This article shows that the percentage of overall votes cast for Buck McKeon has dropped in every election in the last 12 years, except for one. He is beatable.
http://www.thebuckstopsnow.org/2010/05/mckeon-beatable-according-to-data/