Here at SCVtalk, we do what we must because we can. We’ve been following the ever-redrawn legislative and Congressional districts since pen hit paper, like here, here and here.
Some time back, the CCRC decided to stop releasing formal drafts, so we only had unofficial working maps to rely upon. Sorry to say, once I had a taste of a unanimously-passed set of offical draft maps, the working maps no longer did it for me. As George Clinton once said, “I don’t want my funk stepped on.”
Well kids, our draft fast has been broken with the Mother(s) of All Maps: The Preliminary Final Maps. A contradiction in terms? Maybe. But these are the districts, unless they aren’t. Final, but in a preliminary kind of way.
The CCRC is made up of five Democrats, five Republicans and four people belonging to neither party. The Assembly and Senate maps passed 13-1, and the Congressional map passed 13-1.
They are going to let these maps ferment for a fortnight before holding its final vote, but as far as we are concerned, these are our districts.
Our toolbox:
The CCRC’s final visualizations overlayed on Google Maps (UCB GIS)
Meridian Pacific’ Map Analysis
Just like last time, we’re going to rely on consulting firm Meridan Pacific for the heavy (number) lifting.
State Senate
An odd thing happened since we last spoke. The CCRC stopped trying to pair Assembly districts into Senate districts, instead opting to draw the districts fresh. For the SCV, that meant splitting the SCV in a manner reminiscent of the Hart High boundary lines circa 1996.
Nearly all of the SCV will fall in the 21st district, a solid Republican high desert district that looks like the first half of a Valencia-to-Vegas road trip. Until further notice, this will be the Antelope Valley seat. I wouldn’t be surprised to see an all-GOP general election showdown between the custodians of the AV’s two political dynasties, Steve Knight and Sharon Runner. For a while, we’re on the outside looking in.
The new 27th Senate District will be home to incumbent Senators Tony Strickland (R) and Fran Pavley (D), not to mention our own Cameron Smyth. We don’t have numbers yet, but on first glance, the new 27th appears to include even less of the SCV than Strickland’s current 19th district.
In so many ways, 2012 is looking a lot like 2008 for Tony Strickland. Again he’ll be facing a fellow incumbent in a near-even district that includes coastal and inland areas. Considering we’re not so interested in spending time with him, and he’s hardly around anyway, maybe it’s time we start seeing other people.
It’s hard to imagine Cameron Smyth challenging an incumbent or two with such a small hometown base, but he might have nothing better to do. I’m expecting an epic and expensive Pavley/Strickland general election fight to the wire – although the VC Star wonders if an Elton Gallegly retirement would lead one or both to run for Congress. Either way, it will hardly matter to the SCV.
State Assembly
Interestingly, the people at Meridian Pacific labeled our new Assembly seat “AD38-Scott Wilk”, and it’s hard to argue with that. Scott Wilk, who will been seen on ballots this November running for a third term on the SCCCD Board of Trustees, has been the local point man on all things redistricting. Those who wanted to see SCV remain whole got their wish, and those who were looking for a friendly, SCV-centric seat to run in – got their his wish as well.
This district has the makings of a classic California Republican seat of yesteryear – Santa Clarita and Simi Valleys. A winning candidate may need to quote Reagan chapter and verse, but they needn’t don a powdered wig while doing so. I predict Wilk wins, even if he faces another Republican in the general election.
One Valley One District? In the 1980s, Saugus had three Congressmen.
Congress
The story in the Fightin’ 25th is the same as last time: Buck McKeon gets a safer seat, which he’ll probably hold until the Republicans lose control of the House or when his term as Armed Forces chairman expires.
Republican Congressman Elton Gallegly also lives in this district, by a matter of blocks. For Elton, beating McKeon would be nearly impossible. If he doesn’t retire, he’ll likely run in the Ventura County-based 26th district. The 26th may boast a strong D over R advantage, the electorate has split their ticket many times in the past.
That’s all?
I admit, this is all so anti-climactic (if this is your kinda thing). Our new districts look much like the old. The journey was fun, at least.
I’ve been looking at some older maps, and I’m struck by just how odd the old politician-drawn districts look compared to the new districts from the CCRC. Throughout the state, and throughout the decade, we’ll see competitive races, which is something we haven’t seen since the 90s.
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Madder than hell at this commission that gerrymandered more safe Dem House seats, just another nail in California’s coffin. Turn out the CFL-this party is over.
Yeah because Republicans have done our country so well on the national level. Drive the car in the ditch, then point and toss the keys to the other party when the police show up.
It will be interesting to see what additional “tweaks” will be made. It looks like Latinos picked-up an extra ten seats. The commission then made Hahn face Richardson as opposed to Waxman…
A few observations:
Ten years ago white and black Democrats crafted a map that accomplished two goals: 1. Protect nearly all incumbents of both parties, and
2. Diminish the impact of the growing Hispanic population on white and black Democrats, who want enough Hispanic voters to make their seats safe but not so many to permit Hispanic electoral success. This remap recognizes the demographic shifts that have occurred over the past two decades.
With the continued growth in the Hispanic population, the California Republican party must rapidly develop a strategy for appealing to Hispanic voters (who tend to be more culturally and socially conservative than white Democrats). Failure to do so will continue the long, slow march toward marginalization of the California Republican party. My money is that the old white guys who run the California Republican party will not do so and, instead, go down with the ship of what many Hispanic perceive to be anti Hispanic rhetoric.
Senator Tony Strickland is in deep trouble. He is hurt by the loss of voters in his Ventura County base and in the Santa Clarita Valley. And while he is helped by the loss of ultra-liberal Santa Barbara, he is greatly harmed by the addition of affluent and liberal West San Fernando Valley and Malibu, which are the base of his opponent Senator Fran Pavley and where Senator Strickland’s Tea Party conservatism will be anathema. Also hurting Senator Strickland is the new all-party primary/run-off system. With the combining of Congressmen Berman and Sherman in a district that overlaps in the West San Fernando Valley, the Berman/Sherman clash will generate a very large turnout in the area of greatest strength for Senator Pavley.
Bottom line: if you like politics, you’ll love the next election cycle!
Astute and fresh analysis, as always. Whoever you are.