November 9, 2011 Daily Brief-Too Close for Comfort Edition?

Posted on November 9, 2011 by Timothy Myers SR.
  • So the election was a very close one for the incumbents last night and one incumbent Republican, Rose Diaz, was actually ousted by faux Republican Stephen Winkler for the Saugus Union School Board.  SCVNEWS has the most up to date summary.  Shame on Leon Worden for using aggregate County numbers in analyzing turnout (12%) and Vote by Mail (55%).  In our little corner of heaven turnout was more like 9% and VBM 65% to 70%.
  • Measure E easily passes the 55% required threshold and comes within just a hair of the old required 2/3′s supermajority for bonds proving once again that anything with “education” in the title will get overwhelming support in the kid-centric SCV.
  • On the ground reporting:  Your correspondent attended the Scott Wilk (somewhat) muted victory party at Spirit Properties in Centre Pointe with the cognizanti of the SCV (it must have been pretty lonely over at Patrick Hill Central)  The party was muted because it takes so long to get precinct results after the VBM’s and Scott was quite frankly hoping to win by more.
  • Further SCVTalk analysis.  This election provides evidence that a LOW turnout is a challenger’s best friend since a not insignificant number of engaged voters have rational grievances against the institutions and will register a protest vote.  Ironically, the more legitimate the candidacy of the challenger the worst they did.
  •  And more analysis:  Wilk/Hill race is a dress rehearsal for how vicious the Wilk/McKeon race will be for Assembly and I personally can’t wait!
  • And finally on the Young Republicans (“YR”)-The mighty eight YR’s will crow that they helped Patrick Hill run relatively close to Scott Wilk (probably true) and that their endorsement carried the day for Stephen Winkler, conveniently forgetting that three term Republican Rose Diaz, whom they also endorsed, lost out to Winkler leaving Rose Koscielny, one of a handful of Democratic officeholders in the SCV coming first.  Don’t worry.  I predict that Stephen Winkler will change back to a Democrat in a few days so we can all mock the YR’s roundly.
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11 Responses to November 9, 2011 Daily Brief-Too Close for Comfort Edition?

  1. Mike says:
    November 9, 2011 at 9:49 am

    The COC races were unique in that the real opponents were Wilk and Fortine. Each, in their own way, used their muscle to make this election difficult for the other guy. Since much of the Wilk/Shaw and Fortine/Hill effort was in tandem (similar endorsements, joint mailers, etc.), if a

    Explanation 1: The challengers came so close because they were both bolstered by the incumbent in the other race. I think this is folly because we saw a campaign just two years ago where Joan MacGreggor’s challenger received significant support from Fortine and ran a high-profile campaign. Joan beat him 2 to 1. I don’t think a push from another board member is enough to make a big difference in these races.

    Explanation 2: “My son/daughter can’t get classes.” I think that says it all. Most people have certain needs from COC. Over its history, particularly in the DVH era, it has filled those needs very well, raising expectations along the way. COC is now seen as a viable, sensible option for students of high aptitude who are looking to save money for the first two years. In the last couple of years, getting through COC in two or three years has become very difficult, as the state funds far fewer students than it used to. COC has faired much better than most, but even if the board and the college as a whole is blameless, most voters are going to think that fewer classes is the fault of the college.

    So in this election, some voters were bitter at the state of affairs and took it out on the incumbents. Wilk and Fortine, despite being very different candidates, wound up with almost exactly the same vote total. This is an indication of voters judging from outside of the political bubble.

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  2. Thomas says:
    November 9, 2011 at 9:51 am

    Yeah! Successful in getting Rose Diaz out of Saugus. Only 4 more to go.

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  3. Mike says:
    November 9, 2011 at 9:54 am

    I think there are plenty of people in the SCV who have been harboring political aspirations but have been spooked by the power of incumbency are kicking themselves right now. If you had a name, some clout, and some money, just about any of these races would have been winnable.

    On the other hand, if a Steve Sturgeon saw a serious contender in his rear view, he may have campaigned.

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    • Timothy Myers SR says:
      November 9, 2011 at 10:51 am

      Mike:

      You are right. Politics is not a fixed game but a game of chess based on move and countermove. Steve Sturgeon took the measure of Heather Davis, decided she was a flake, and did not bother to campaign. Anyone more formidable, like a Randy Moberg, would have engendered a different tactical response but probably the same outcome.

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  4. Petz says:
    November 9, 2011 at 11:24 am

    Timmy was blindsided by Winkler because he had his eyes on Lofton . :)

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  5. Adam says:
    November 9, 2011 at 12:35 pm

    Since we are bringing the YR’s up, I just thought I’d share this “delightful” note they posted on FB.

    The SCV Young Republicans are out in full force for Patrick Hill

    I personally could not stand it anymore and finally responded.

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    • mike says:
      November 9, 2011 at 1:50 pm

      This infighting delights me to no end. Keep up the good work!

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      • brook says:
        November 10, 2011 at 10:45 am

        Wow Adam you sure showed them with your Costal Sage/Berta lenght comment on there.

        Try being brief your point might be more impactful. I put it into my comment translater and it just returned blah, blah, blah.

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        • Adam says:
          November 10, 2011 at 11:25 am

          Uppity uppity yak yak spew….(running through your comment translator)…

          Translation: “You are welcome to your opinion”

          Have a nice day :-)

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  6. Angelo Candelabra says:
    November 9, 2011 at 8:34 pm

    Low voter turnout is the greatest threat to incumbents seeking reelection. In low turnout elections the voters tend to be better informed. Had these seats been up during a gubernatorial or presidential election the margins would have been much higher.

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