SCV Latinos, take note! Romney wants your vote.

Alas, on election day Cameron came an (extremely) distant fourth, finishing nearly 1,000 votes behind the third place finisher (Laurene Weste) and over 2,300 votes behind the first place finisher (incumbent JoAnne Darcy).

What went wrong with the “poll?”  Assuming that the supporters did not fib, the most likely conclusion is that what they were citing was not a scientific “poll” at all, but more anecdotal and not indicative or predictive of any particular outcome.

Since that 1998 race no City Council candidate has ever plumped for poll numbers, probably primarily because the money they raise is not sufficient to fund multiple polls, where even the cheapest, most flawed and highest margin of error undertaking costs somewhere around $10k.

No such discipline exists in the current 38th Assembly District primary.  Sources, normally reliable, have fed the following “poll result” information into SCVTALK.  I leave it to readers to determine if these are different polls, the same polls, figments of our sources’ imaginations, or misunderstandings of actual results:

1. A poll that showed that Patricia McKeon had 75% name recognition compared to Scott Wilk’s 25%;
2. A poll that showed that Paul Strickland was leading all candidates in SIMI VALLEY because the voters THOUGHT he WAS Congressional candidate Tony Strickland;
3. A poll that showed that Paul Strickland was leading all candidates THROUGHOUT the District because the voters thought he WAS RELATED to Congressional candidate Tony Strickland; and
4. A poll that showed Patricia McKeon faltering so much that the pollster did not show her the results.

I suspect that some or all of these might be true, but complexities surrounding polling methodologies and the first time a “top two” system is utilized in California could negate even the best and most sincere efforts of professional polling companies.

The only thing that is certain?  I and my Nebraska bride cast a vote each for Scott Wilk, so he at least has two.

1. “Why would a few Republican leaders undermine a joint club effort to UNIFY the clubs and promote the Republican candidates for the Assembly race? 

   When your candidate of choice already enjoys high name recognition but whenever they appear in public recently in a forum situation they look like a smiling fool.

2. What is to gain by discounting the event?

   Not having your candidate of choice look like a smiling fool.

3. Why wouldn’t you want your candidate to show up and take questions so they can show the voters they are qualified for the office of State Assembly?

   Because they are not actually qualified for the office.

4. Is “hiding” now a legitimate campaign tactic?

   Yes.  See questions 1 to 3 above.

5. Is this really an appropriate role for Central Committee members?”

   Yes, if the members are part of the machinery of a certain elected official and his family members.

   That was easy to explain.

Bad weekend on area roads:

1. First, a three person over the side crash in the Angeles National Forest.  SIGNAL 
2. Second, six persons injured in a single vehicle rollover crash on the southbound 5. SIGNAL 
3. And finally, multi-car crash on Highway 126 which included vehicle ejections (Seat belts, people for the love of God!)

All accidents clear weather and good road conditions, so let’s be extra careful out there folks this week with rain in the forecast.

According to City officials Cowboy Poetry Festival overcame butt kicking heat on Saturday with probably one of the nicest weather days Sunday to achieve more or less regular attendance.  SIGNAL  Like people who live in Anaheim and never go to Disneyland, the Myers clan has only be to the Festival once, some 14 years ago.

Say what you want about Valencia Water Company, but they had that sinkhole at Decoro and McBean fully repaired with cones picked up and everything within 24 hours.  I know because that intersection personally affects me.  SIGNAL

Shrinking inventories make finding a house in the SCV difficult, at least for the short term.  Are the good times ahead again?  We would personally like to maximize our value when we transition to Orange County in about a year, but any gain will just flow into a similarly rising property market in the OC.  SIGNAL

It looks like Canyon and Saugus High Schools, which both have EXCELLENT performing arts programs, will finally get their own real performing venues after decades long waits.  SIGNAL 

New Council members will be sworn in on Tuesday at 5:00 pm and Facebook traffic would indicate quite a lot of supporters of the victors will show up to celebrate.  SIGNAL  Technically, sitting council will certify election and then Bob Kellar and TimBen Boydston will be sworn in, followed by an election for Mayor and perhaps Mayor Pro Tem.  I pen a column on how the thumping re-election of Bob Kellar and the stunning victory of TimBen Boydston will substantially change the tone of City government, and perhaps have knock on effects in the open primary.  MYERS MUSINGS

I can’t link to FACEBOOK and I can’t find it on the campaign website, but Scott Wilk is passing out reusable grocery bags with the legend “Got Wilk” in an obvious jab to the Patricia McKeon candidacy origin story of paying for paper bags at a Stevenson Ranch Von’s.  Scott deserves everyone’s vote (in my opinion) just for understanding irony.

Again, SCVTALK does not generally cover sports but the SIGNAL  has a Sunday feature story about the 2012 Valencia boys tennis team’s historic domination of the Foothill League this season and they again make mention of some kid named David Myers who, along with partner Cameron Braun, has enjoyed 10 6-0 victories out of 24 in League play so far.

Why is this more than speculation?  It is because EVERYTHING about the 2012 election lined up with either the 2008 election (the last two seat race) or trends seen over the last several elections EXCEPT for the outcome.  This can only mean a significant shift in the feelings of the thin cadre of participating voters and how they felt about this particular incumbent who, as a group, they helped bring to office in 2008.

What exactly was similar to 2008 or to trend?

1. Turnout was slightly less (16.9% vs. 17.3%) in 2012 vs. 2008, so a groundswell of new voters did not sweep TBB into office;
2. The trend in increased mix of vote by mails (“VBM’s”) continued to 75% in 2012 vs. 70% in 2008 (A slight hiccup in 2010 when the percentage of VBM’s decreased momentarily to 67%) so a sudden shift to poll voting did not sweep TBB into office; and
3. Implications of “bullet voting” about the same (1.78 votes per ballot in 2012 vs. 1.77 votes per ballot in 2008) so a big increase in bullet votes did not sweep TBB into office.

So what occurred differently in 2012 when compared to 2008?

1. TBB, while losing to the incumbents in the VBM’s, hung in there only needing to overcome a 202 vote deficit going into the poll votes where in the past challengers found themselves facing an impossible to overcome 800 to 1,000 vote deficit; and
2. TBB (and Bob Kellar) absolutely SMOKED everyone else in the poll votes.  Once we receive the precinct distributions from the City Clerk I am sure we will find that just under 1 in 3 ballots cast on election day contained a vote for TBB while only 1 in 6 carried a vote for Laurie Ender.  This meek performance at the polls would doom Laurie Ender.

So for the first time in a long time every vote did “matter.”  TBB needed to reduce the incumbent’s generally overwhelming support in the VBM’s (he did) and then clean it up on election day (he did).

May he have the honor of heaving the first paper weight!  He has earned it.