SCV Latinos, take note! Romney wants your vote.

Alas, on election day Cameron came an (extremely) distant fourth, finishing nearly 1,000 votes behind the third place finisher (Laurene Weste) and over 2,300 votes behind the first place finisher (incumbent JoAnne Darcy).

What went wrong with the “poll?”  Assuming that the supporters did not fib, the most likely conclusion is that what they were citing was not a scientific “poll” at all, but more anecdotal and not indicative or predictive of any particular outcome.

Since that 1998 race no City Council candidate has ever plumped for poll numbers, probably primarily because the money they raise is not sufficient to fund multiple polls, where even the cheapest, most flawed and highest margin of error undertaking costs somewhere around $10k.

No such discipline exists in the current 38th Assembly District primary.  Sources, normally reliable, have fed the following “poll result” information into SCVTALK.  I leave it to readers to determine if these are different polls, the same polls, figments of our sources’ imaginations, or misunderstandings of actual results:

1. A poll that showed that Patricia McKeon had 75% name recognition compared to Scott Wilk’s 25%;
2. A poll that showed that Paul Strickland was leading all candidates in SIMI VALLEY because the voters THOUGHT he WAS Congressional candidate Tony Strickland;
3. A poll that showed that Paul Strickland was leading all candidates THROUGHOUT the District because the voters thought he WAS RELATED to Congressional candidate Tony Strickland; and
4. A poll that showed Patricia McKeon faltering so much that the pollster did not show her the results.

I suspect that some or all of these might be true, but complexities surrounding polling methodologies and the first time a “top two” system is utilized in California could negate even the best and most sincere efforts of professional polling companies.

The only thing that is certain?  I and my Nebraska bride cast a vote each for Scott Wilk, so he at least has two.

SCVTALK: Tell us about your background in the SCV (why you moved here and stayed) and how you got involved in politics? What is your educational background?

Wilk: I was born and raised in the Antelope Valley and I’ve always had a fondness for the Santa Clarita Valley. As a child when my family traveled Sierra Highway to the San Fernando Valley to shop my favorite part of the trip was having dinner at Sir George’s smorgasbord in Friendly Valley.

Vanessa and I tried to buy our first home here, but as a young couple with a child and a single income we couldn’t quite afford it so we bought in Palmdale. We benefitted from a spike in housing prices and 2 ½ years later we sold our house for about 40% more than we paid. We moved into our Valencia home on August 2, 1990 and I remember it well because Sadam Hussein invaded Kuwait on that day. The housing market literally collapsed weeks after we bought our home – but I didn’t care because I was living where I had always wanted to live!

When Scott, Jr. and Alison were young we were heavily involved in their lives. At Santa Clarita Elementary I was known as “Mister Vanessa Wilk” as Vanessa served three years as PTA president. I also served on the school’s site council. We also taught Sunday school, and were involved in Girl Scouts and youth sports.

Over the years we transitioned to being active in Santa Clarita Valley non-profits including the Henry Mayo Hospital Foundation, SCV Chamber of Commerce, the COC Foundation and the Greater SCV Soroptimists.

My political engagement started in 1972 when I would ride my bike to Republican headquarters to stuff envelopes for the Nixon campaign. And the rest is history…

SCVTALK: You’re running for a seat occupied since 2006 by Cameron Smyth, who, in the last few years, has made several attempts to reach across the aisle and work with the Majority and Governor Brown. Some think this has increased his power and relevance as a member of a minority party. Would you continue Assemblyman Smyth’s efforts?

Wilk: Assemblyman Smyth has done a phenomenal job in a very tough environment. When he first was elected the GOP had 32 out of 80 seats in the State Assembly. Currently the GOP is down to 27 seats. His ability to make an impact is a tribute to his leadership.

However, because of the redistricting process the Republicans should gain as many as 7 seats in the State Assembly making them very relevant. Like Cameron, I will always try to get to “yes,” fully conceding it won’t happen often. When I go to Sacramento and advocate for community colleges, I am bothered when the first question the legislator asks is, “What is the caucus position?” Like my mentor Congressman Tom McClintock I intend to read every bill, and like Cameron Smyth I will vote my district, not my caucus.

SCVTALK: Is the ⅔ requirement before a tax can be raised in Sacramento a good thing or a bad thing? Why?

Wilk: Californians already pay the second highest income tax rate and highest sales tax in the country. If Governor Brown has his way in November with his tax initiative we will be number-one in both. Unfortunately, there is a mentality in Sacramento that, “We can do whatever we want because people aren’t going to leave this weather.” The business exodus from California is well-documented and high taxes are one of the leading drivers. The 2/3 requirement is the firewall to stop the implosion of the California business community.

I will also advocate for targeted tax incentives for manufacturing and the film industry. Over the last decade California has lost 33% of its industrial base which equates to over 600,000 jobs. According to the California Manufacturers Association manufacturing costs are 24% higher in California than the national average. California is one of only four states to charge sales taxes on manufacturing equipment. Exempting sales tax for the purchase of machinery would encourage manufacturers to expand facilities thus creating more jobs.

I support a five-year extension and an increase of the funding into the film tax credit. I have reviewed various economic studies and it shows that for every dollar the state invests there is a rate-of-return of at least $1.13. I don’t anyone who wouldn’t kill for a 13% return-on-investment!

Our campaign has held dozens of Meet & Greets and it is far too common for a spouse to attend alone because their significant other is out of state on a film project. Santa Clarita is in the TMZ and we have thousands of residents who are in the film industry and I will be their advocate. Hollywood belongs in California, not Louisiana, Michigan or New Mexico. These states are beginning to build the infrastructure to permanently lure Hollywood. Sacramento needs to be smart and make the proper investment so we retain this economically and culturally important industry.

SCVTALK: Many Santa Clarita education officials insist that the cuts to California schools have gone far enough, with one even remarking that “Five years of cuts to education funding have whittled local school districts to the budgetary bone.” Yet you have signed the Americans for Tax Reform “No Tax Pledge.” How do you plan on improving education in California without raising taxes or voting for even more cuts to our local schools?

Wilk: I support the full funding of Prop 98 and am committed to funding education by transitioning Sacramento from base-line budgeting to performance-based budgeting so Sacramento sets proper spending priorities.

I’ll also fight to change the school funding formula that was created in the 1970’s to address the Serrano vs. Priest legal decision. Our schools are unfunded vis-à-vis other districts and I believe this is a violation of the 14th Amendment.

However, the best way to improve school funding is to grow the economy and get our 2.3 million unemployed Californians back to work.

SCVTALK: You’ve spoken a lot about the need to reduce regulation and increase incentives so that businesses stay in California. But how do you keep and attract solid businesses in California without engaging in a “race to the bottom” competition with other states?

Wilk: While other states roll out the red carpet, Sacramento continues to roll out the red tape. For the 8th straight year CEO Magazine declared California the worst state in the nation to do business.

I believe holding the line on taxes and regulatory reform will provide predictability to encourage entrepreneurs to start new businesses or invest more in their existing business which creates jobs.

When I meet with small business owners I solicit their input on which individual regulations need to be eliminated or streamlined. My plan is to shop those ideas to legislators to see what we can accomplish.

However, I think we need a whole new framework on how the state adopts and implements regulations. Reform would include: True independent review of regulations; five-year automatic sunsets to force agencies’ to fix the problems that spawned the regulations in the first place; requiring the Legislature to approve the regulations mandated by the laws they passed rather than some administrative agency; and assessing how a proposed regulation fits into the existing regulatory network of local, state and federal governments.

SCVTALK: On your website, you say that California should improve its crumbling infrastructure, yet you oppose the High Speed Rail initiative. What kind of infrastructure investments would you like to see happen and how would we pay for them?

Wilk: The High Speed Rail Project, or “Train to Nowhere” is a boondoggle of historic propositions. Recently, the Legislative Analyst Office stated it will cost the state $2 billion annually to subsidize the train once it comes on-line.

Frankly, our transportation infrastructure is based on freeways and we need to be committed to building, widening and maintaining our present system. To finance these ventures we can do a couple of things: first, more private-public partnerships such as the Golden State Gateway Coalition. The Newhall Pass I-5 project environmental and design phase timeframe was cut in half and at a significantly lower cost thanks to the coalition. Second, while most other states out-source about 50-60% of their work, Cal Trans only out-sources about 10%. Government bureaucracy is slower to produce as well as more expensive to the taxpayer.

I also have real concerns about water infrastructure and would support bond financing to achieve the results our state needs. However, the current $11.2 billion pork-laden proposal slated for the November ballot is a non-starter. Water is our most precious resource and the Legislature needs to get serious about capturing, storing and preserving this life-giving asset.

SCVTALK: Where do you stand on Proposition 28 and 29, which would reform term limits and increase tobacco taxes respectively?

Wilk: I support Prop 28 which will reduce the number of years a legislator can serve from 14 to 12 years, but allow the person to remain in the same legislative body for the duration of their time served. This will help create better legislative institutional memory which is so sorely lacking today and it will force legislators to live with the consequences of their votes. An example is the Legislature passed AB 32 in 2006 to reduce Greenhouse gasses and the state is just now implementing the “cap & trade” program and is violating the intent of the bill as drafted. The projected $3 billion in new and probably illegal taxes the California Air Resources Board is imposing with their cap & trade auction program will cause our energy prices to soar.

Hopefully, legislators will take a longer-term view of issue knowing they will be in the Legislature for a dozen years, rather than a mere six.

I oppose Prop 29 as it will create a new government agency for cancer research at a projected cost of $500 million drawing its revenue from an increase in tobacco taxes which consumer trends show is declining in usage. Historically cancer research has been conducted at the federal level. Furthermore, the funds do not go to the General Fund, but to a special account that circumvents Proposition 98 and will rob our schools of approximately $300 million annually. The state should remain focused on its core responsibilities.

SCVTALK: You live in a Republican district with a 36/39 spread between Democrats and Republicans, respectively. Why should a Democrat vote for you in this “top two” primary system?

Wilk: First, the spread is more like 41-34 *. Second, the 19.1 Decline-To-State voters are heavily conservative. So in November we will have a Republican State Assembly Representative (sorry Ed!). Stylistically, I have a long history of being open and willing to engage with all parties. My commitment to collaboration such as the Open Space campaign is an example of my leadership style.

Additionally, my business background coupled with my senior staff legislative experience I am best positioned of the three Republican candidates to make a difference on Day One. To my Democrat friends I encourage them to be strategic, responsible and principled by casting their vote for me on June 5th and then, if they must, return to the Democrat fold in November.

ON THE WEB:

SCOTT WILK

WILK ON FACEBOOK

*Indeed Wilk is right. I was using numbers from the SacBee’s website and mistakenly pulled the previous 38th District’s spread. The new District is more Republican than the last one. 

It’s not just the water and great weather!

McKeon/West BBQ and a protest sign that will appear at tomorrow's BBQ

A libertarian group, seemingly affiliated with the Ron Paul movement, plans to protest at Buck McKeon & Allen West’s barbecue in Agua Dulce tomorrow.

The group, Victor Valley Libertarian Alliance, is organizing the protest on Facebook, where at least 26 people say they are going to attend, including McKeon’s opponent in the June 5 Lee Rogers and local conservative radio talk jock Joe Messina.

The group calls Rep. McKeon a “traitor”  for sponsoring and working to pass the National Defence Authorization Act of 2012, which the group says amounts to a violation of the US Constitution:

“Buck” McKeon has voted with the majority in
congress more than 95% of the time. Among his
legislative “gifts” is the National Defense Authorization Act
of 2012 which he sponsored in the House. The NDAA has
been called by some constitutionalists, “the most onerous
piece of legislation since the Alien and Sedition Acts of
1798 or the Espionage Act of 1917.”
While our representative, Buck McKeon has claimed
that with passage of NDAA 2012 “we have ensured that as
we fight terrorists around the world, we also protect the
civil liberties of Americans at home”, his understanding of
what constitutes “civil liberties” is questionable.

The appearance of the group at McKeon’s BBQ can’t be welcome news. I imagine our Congressman was hoping an appearance with Rep. Allen West, a certified Tea Party firebrand who recently discovered that 78-81 House Democrats are communists, would burnish his conserva-cred with local Tea Party types. To Tea Partiers, Allen West is the real deal; my sense is that Team McKeon’s hope was that locals would be so overcome with excitement at the site of West that they’d forgive/forget McKeon for the six months of solid & unprecedented bad press he’s had in these parts.

The only thing worse than having a bunch of Ron Paulistas show up at your family-friendly BBQ would be to have a bunch of Lyndon LaRouchites show up. Maybe we’ll get them too. Such are the hazards of having a nationally-known and powerful Congressman (alas we’re not even getting the benefits of Congressional pork!)

PS: This might just be the hottest ticket in town on Saturday night. Free wine, questionable BBQ & political entertainment? It’s like it was taylor-made for me! Maybe I’ll show up too. 

PS #2: A reader tells me she received a robocall last night for Patricia McKeon for Assembly. Who made the robocall? Supervisor Mike Antonovich. 

SCVTalk: We know you are an accomplished physician in the Simi Valley, but what made you decide to get in the race, and what specific issues make you excited, angry, and motivate you? What is your background and why the move into politics and policy when you have a successful practice at your hospital?

Rogers: I was recruited to Valley Presbyterian Hospital to start the Amputation Prevention Center, which is in Van Nuys. We live in Simi Valley for many of the same reasons others live there or in Santa Clarita – better living at a more reasonable price and good public schools. Our center treats people from all over Southern California who have diabetes and gangrene, infections, or wounds of their feet. Our center has been very successful, preventing over 1000 amputations and we have received proclamations from Governor Schwarzenegger, The California State Assembly, and the Los Angeles City Council.

I’m running for Congress because we’re not being represented in Washington. It angers me to see how partisan and dysfunctional Congress is. Last year, only 66 bills were passed, one of the least productive years in history. Virtually nothing was accomplished and Congress even played chicken over the typical appropriations bills that fund the basic services of our government.

SCVTalk: Republicans say the key to lowering health care costs is to encourage competition by allowing people to buy insurance across state lines and malpractice tort reform. Democrats, including President Obama, have embraced what was once a Republican idea, the individual mandate and insurance markets, yet there is a popular move to repeal even that. How do we best lower costs and extend coverage to uninsured, or to put it another way, what is the role of the federal government in the delivery of health care?

Rogers:  Health insurance companies only make a profit by charging you more money or denying more services. There are 6 large health insurance companies across the country that insure about 200 million people. Most of them are already operating in all states. Competition is not going to lower costs, because healthcare is not a true “free market”. It’s not like getting an oil change for your car. Prices are confusing and not published. No one calls multiple hospitals or doctors to ask how much their gall bladder removal will cost. In many cases, urgent or emergency care prevents one from performing research, price or otherwise, on their treatment.

- Dr. Lee Rogers

You correctly point out that the individual mandate was a Republican idea. I do think it seems somewhat un-American to force someone to purchase something they can’t afford and then tax them if they don’t buy it. In 1950 Americans spent on average 3% of their income on healthcare or insurance. Now that number is 17% and growing. It is already unaffordable for some, but soon it could become unaffordable for many.

I believe that health care is a right. When I walk by the Intensive Care Unit and see a crying family, they might be Caucasian, Latino, African-American, or their loved one might be insured, uninsured, or underinsured. It doesn’t matter what their race is or their ability to pay, they deserve the best possible care. We’re talking about people’s lives – their mothers and fathers, their grandparents, sometimes their children. And at that time, the patient and family are vulnerable. They’re in a confusing system and agree to the care, without any idea what it costs. In fact, even the doctors have no idea what the care costs. No one knows until three months later when a non-itemized bill comes, for sometimes hundreds of thousands of dollars. Health costs are the #1 reason for bankruptcies in the US. We have to stop that.

SCVTalk: Was Obamacare too large of a step? Would Americans have been more accepting of an incremental increase in the role of the federal government in the delivery of health care? What went wrong?

Rogers:  As a doctor, I am not a supporter of Obamacare. Certainly, there are some good parts of it, like banning insurers from denying you coverage for a pre-existing condition, allowing adult children to stay on their parents insurance until age 26, and preventing insurance companies from denying children. But the risks of this 2700 page bill outweigh the benefits. The single biggest benefactor of the bill was the health insurance industry. They have 46 million new customers and no caps on premiums.

Regarding the federal government’s role in health care, it already plays a very large role. The government is the largest insurer, by Medicare, VA medical benefits, active duty military benefits, and Medicaid block grants. Through Medicare, it sets the price index for all insurances. It provides safety regulations for hospitals and clinics by linking it to funding. It controls the supply and safety of medications. It funds a majority of medical research. So I don’t think people oppose the government’s large role when it comes to keeping us safe and preventing fraud.

The federal government can make great strides in reducing costs by concentrating resources on preventable diseases. Makes sense, right? Spend a little money now to prevent something costly later. But we’re not doing it. Three diseases – diabetes, obesity, and cardiovascular disease – will cost us $2.5 trillion over the next 10 years. And all three diseases are caused by the same two things, poor diet and lack of activity. We need to get serious about preventable diseases and Americans have to believe that being healthy is a goal of personal and national importance. I’ve proposed some measures directed at disease prevention, which I firmly believe would be offset by cost savings.

SCVTalk: The newly-shaped and shrunken California 25th District now includes much of the Simi Valley, all of the Santa Clarita Valley, and much of the Antelope Valley. How are these areas similar & different and how would you represent the different interests in each community?

Rogers: I find Simi Valley and Santa Clarita fairly similar. People move to these parts because of more affordable housing and good public schools. Many residents are professionals – teachers, nurses, police officers, firefighters, who commute into LA or surrounding areas. There is a growing population of people involved in the entertainment industry. There are also a lot of retirees and veterans. In the Antelope Valley, there are manufacturing industries, engineers, higher education, military, and service-related jobs.

- Dr. Lee Rogers

Many people in the 25th district commute to work, mostly by car. This makes fuel prices and road congestion important topics. I’ve proposed preventing investment bankers from speculating on oil, which even the CEO of Exxon-Mobil says is responsible for up to 40% of the price of crude oil. Speculators control of the market rose from 30% a decade ago to 80% now. The price of fuel affects the price of everything else, from groceries, to airline tickets, to shipping. Last year, as a result of my commute, I spent $4300 on gasoline. That caused me to purchase a more fuel-efficient car and change my driving behavior this year. Oil is too important of a commodity to allow profiteers to control the price. Reducing speculation will help commuters and consumers.

Road congestion needs to be addressed at the North San Fernando Valley interchanges into the Santa Clarita Valley. I support Ventura County’s efforts for a federal TIGER Grant to improve the Hwy 23 – US 101 interchange. But even more importantly, I will oppose the Cemex mine with every last breath to prevent 1200 trucks per day along Hwy 14, the only route to Los Angeles for many in the Antelope Valley and Santa Clarita Valley.

SCVTalk: You’ve criticized the Paul Ryan budget proposal, but on your website you don’t offer specifics for arresting $1 trillion + yearly deficits and the national debt. So what long term budget plan do you support? Do you think Americans should pay more in federal taxes?

Rogers:  The Ryan Budget, which McKeon wholeheartedly supports, is wrong for our country. It reverses the Budget Control Act of 2011 and avoids all the reductions in defense by cutting Medicare, Medicaid, and other domestic spending. In essence, the Ryan Budget chooses grenades over grandmas.

The simple truth is that we don’t have enough money for all the programs, so either you cut programs or raise revenue. People like the current programs. So I often rhetorically ask what are you going to cut; Medicare, Social Security, education, national security, veterans benefits? It’s unrealistic to say you’re going to cut programs but then when you try to isolate one there is public backlash.

Personally, I support a balanced approach with spending cuts and revenue increases as a solution to our debt. I don’t support tax increases on the middle class, but the millionaires and billionaires in our country should pay their fare share. The extremely wealthy should not pay lower tax rates than average working people who spend a larger percentage of their income on living expenses. We need to end corporate subsidies to very profitable companies. We can’t allow big companies to pay no corporate taxes and take billions in taxpayer subsidies.

SCVTalk: Illegal immigration is a potent issue in California’s 25th district. What is your position on it and what would you do about it if elected to Congress?

Rogers:  Both parties deserve the blame for inaction on immigration. Congress is paralyzed by inability and unwillingness to act. The first thing we need to do is secure the border by whatever means necessary. We should help to stabilize Mexico, because many are fleeing a corrupt government controlled by drug cartels.

After this, we have to be compassionate to those who have settled here because of our lax enforcement of laws and porous borders. We should create a reasonable path to citizenship for them.

SCVTalk: Democratic challengers to Buck McKeon in California 25 have long run weak, half-hearted campaigns against the Congressmen with little official support. But in 2006, an energetic Democratic candidate emerged, raising $250,000 and campaigning in all parts of the district. He lost by 25 points. 2008 was a missed opportunity as this District voted for Obama and Buck McKeon. Should you emerge as one of our candidates from this primary, are you expecting national & state support and funds from the Democrats? Why will your campaign be different in 2012 than the previous Democratic campaigns?

Rogers:  I’m running a serious campaign with top-notch consultants who currently advise 15 sitting Members of Congress. We’ve also got a great fundraising team with a very wide net, we’ve raised money from inside the district and from 49 states. I travel been back and forth to DC and the race is getting a lot of attention. I think we’ve met the criteria for the national organization to give us support.

SCVTalk: Most observers expect that Republicans will retain control of the House of Representatives following the 2012 election. If you are elected as part of a minority party, how will you go beyond just introducing legislation (As your website’s First 100 days section promises) to ensuring legislation important to CA-25 passes the House?

Rogers:  One has to learn to accomplish goals for the district when their party is in the majority or the minority. I’m not going to Washington to represent my party, but to get things done for the district. I think many of the things I proposed in My First 100 Days document (www.LeeRogers2012.com/first-100-days/) would have bipartisan support.

SCVTalk: Was the President’s Stimumuls Act in 2009 a success or a failure given that California still has more than 10% unemployment?

Rogers:  I don’t think the unemployment rate is a good metric for the full effect of the Stimulus. It did a lot more for than just try to boost employment, it directly helped the unemployed by extending unemployment benefits and subsidizing COBRA insurance. It created a tax credit of $400 per worker or $800 per couple for 2009 and 2010. It modified the AMT and the child tax credit. It also gave a $250 supplement to those receiving SSI, SSD, and veterans benefits. In addition to that, it funded projects to improve our infrastructure, gave tax credits to money losing small businesses, and funded bonds for construction of schools and economic development.

SCVTalk: You are running for office in a District with 40% of registered voters identifying as Republicans and 35% identifying as Democrats. Why should a Republican voter in CA-25 vote for you over Buck McKeon?

Rogers:  Again, I don’t believe in going to Congress to be a rubber stamp for one’s party. I would approach each issue as looking through the lens of what’s best for the district. Sure, my party affiliation is Democrat, but I’m fairly moderate. I’m pro-Second Amendment.

Dr. Lee Rogers

I believe in being fiscally responsible. You can’t spend more money that you bring it – I support a clean balanced budget amendment. Congressman McKeon has been one of the largest deficit spenders since going to Washington. Six Congressional actions are the major causes of our $15 trillion debt – Bush Tax cuts, Medicare Part D, Iraq War, Afghan War, the Bailout, and the Stimulus. I’m not arguing the merits of any one of the items, but rather that not a single one was paid for. Buck McKeon voted for 5 of the 6 (not the Stimulus). Basically he voted to take out our nation’s credit card, swipe it, and leave the bill for our children.

Buck McKeon is ethically challenged. His involvement in the Countrywide Mortgage scandal was referred to the Ethics Committee. He engages in nepotism in his campaign. His wife is the highest campaign paid congressional spouse in the country. She received over $550,000 from his campaign in the past 8-9 years. He pays other family members for services. He’s been accused of insider trading, with Corinthian Colleges stock and his mutual funds. He has a large sense of entitlement, like feeling entitled to tell you who to choose for city council, and of course, for the assembly race.

So, if you are a Republican and you care about being fiscally responsible and having a congressman who behaves ethically, I’d appreciate your vote.

ON THE WEB

Lee Rogers campaign site

Lee Rogers Facebook site